Published: March 31, 2026
The most damning numbers about Sarasota County's finances don't come from us. They come from the county's own budget office.
The county's own five-year projections show operating deficits of roughly $31.6 million in FY2028, $40.8 million in FY2029, and $39.2 million in FY2030. Not a downturn. Not a hurricane. On its current path, the county is forecasting that it will spend tens of millions more than it takes in, year after year. (Sarasota County budget projections; FY2026 Adopted Budget.)
How did a county that calls itself fiscally conservative get here? By spending like it wasn't.
Since FY2022, the commission added $876 million in new spending and debt. Spending jumped 48% while population grew just 7.8% — six times faster. Bonded debt nearly doubled, up 76%, to $1.11 billion, with no referendum. In FY2025 alone, spending spiked 24.7% — the largest single-year jump on record. General-government spending now runs $4,394 per resident — #5 in the entire state. (Sarasota County CAFR FY2021–FY2025, audited.)
And here is the engine of the coming deficits: in FY2025, revenue grew 3.5% while spending grew 27.8%. When costs climb eight times faster than income, the gap does not close on its own. It compounds. (CAFR.)
The county is already reaching into the cushion. Across all governmental funds, reserves fell from 116% of annual spending to 89% in a single year, and the FY2026 budget appropriates $41.7 million out of the General Fund's reserves to balance. Spending down savings to cover operating costs is not a strategy. It is a countdown. (CAFR; FY2026 Adopted Budget.)
What did all that money buy? Not service. The county payroll grew under 10% — barely faster than the population. The surge went into contracts, consultants, borrowing, and monuments like the $75.1 million administration center (Project 83203), approved 5-0 in January 2023 with Commissioner Smith seconding (Res. 2023-022) and funded substantially by bonds. The money grew. The service did not.
Not everyone on the commission went along quietly. Commissioner Tom Knight — a former Sarasota County sheriff with more than three decades in government — drew a hard line when the commission tried to hand $7.5 million in federal disaster money to a developer-backed nonprofit that had built nothing and raised nothing. Knight seconded the motion to claw the money back, arguing the county had no business funding a startup to compete with public schools that already do the work. The grant was canceled 3-1. (Florida Trident; Sarasota News Leader, April 2025.)
When a law-and-order conservative on your own commission is the one applying the brakes, it tells you how far the spending has drifted from the "small government" the others campaigned on.
Because two commissioners voted for the budgets and the bonds that built this path: Mark Smith (District 2) and Joe Neunder (District 4) — the only two in office for the entire run-up, and the only two on the August ballot.
This August, District 2 voters can weigh Kristina Sargent against Smith, and District 4 voters can weigh Jim DeNiro against Neunder. We make no endorsement and will hold the challengers to the same standard. But the county's own projections have already written the warning. The only question left is whether voters heed it.
Every number above is drawn from the county's own audited records. Read the derivations, then share this with a neighbor who's wondering why everything costs more. The Republican primary is August 18.
BY THE NUMBERS: The county's own projections: deficits of ~$31.6M (FY2028), ~$40.8M (FY2029), ~$39.2M (FY2030). $876M in new spending and debt since FY2022; spending +48% vs population +7.8%; bonds nearly doubled (+76%); FY2025 spike +24.7%. Revenue +3.5% vs spending +27.8% in FY2025. Across all governmental funds, reserves fell 116%→89%; the FY2026 budget draws $41.7M from the General Fund's reserves. Sources: Sarasota County CAFR FY2021–FY2025; FY2026 Adopted Budget; Florida Trident & Sarasota News Leader (April 2025).
